Why Indian Techies read Trump all wrong ..
Kiran: “So you’re a Biden supporter?”
Me: “Err .. well in this scenario, he may not be the most ideal, but he’s the best fighting chance they have”
Kiran: “Really, do you think Biden will be good for India?”
Me: “Errr .. Good in what sense?”
Kiran: “Come on, everyone know those democrats are against India, Trump has had a pro-India policy all along!!”
Me: “Pro-India in what way?”
Kiran: “He comes down hard on Pakistan for terrorism. He is on our side against China .. yes .. yes .. he is even not afraid to take on China!!”
Me: “But there is an ongoing trade war with China now. We didn’t have that before did we?”
Kiran: “But do you see what they’re doing in Dokhalam, in the Pacific Ocean, South China sea, everyone has problem with them”
Me: “Good that you mentioned that, so what is Trump doing about this?” !!
…
Just like the Americans, Indians are equally divided about Trump. I am going to specifically refer to the group I am part of, the ocean of I.T. professionals. It is not uncommon in India, to find the odd Village to Vegas tale of the homegrown boy with tough odds stacked against him who braved his way up to the top and now works in New Jersey.
Countless more middle-class Indians sink the most valuable years of their lives staring into the laptop screen with a proven hope of the brides they would marry one day or the cross country drive to San Francisco in the distant future with their family “if and only if” they were chosen for the lucky draw of the H1-B visa interview. Back in the day, almost everyone who was selected for the interview was given a visa.
For the upwardly mobile I.T. crowd, the system that the W.T.O. created was a dream. Successive Republican and even Democratic Governments encouraged outsourcing that went on for nearly 3 decades now (uninterrupted) beginning with the y2k problem and now ballooning into a very different 2020 problem.
As early as 2005, their were already cries about the unfairness of this system that uplifted the fortunes of a few nations at the cost of other peoples. A study in Harvard back in 2006 along with the 2008 Financial crisis clearly indicated that this beggar-thy-neighbour policy being used by some nations was unsustainable in the long haul.
In fact, In his 2nd term as president, Barack Obama tried to repeal a law in the United States that gave tax breaks to companies that offshore work (yes, how ridiculous does it sound!!). Ironically that bill was shot down by Republicans, for whatever reasons.
Imagine our plight if one day the Indian IT service behemoths (Infosys, TATA, Wipro, etc.. ) lament that over time all our salaries and on-site expectations have gone through the roof making their outsourcing businesses unprofitable. What if they decide to hire affordable engineers from Bangladesh instead to get the work done – quietly!! Well – you get the drift.
There were many reasons why the Republican party was okay with offshoring. At its core, there was always this capitalistic ideal that businesses are answerable to shareholders.
Yes, for this to work Government should stay out of the game as much as possible and tip toe around the field blowing their whistle occasionally (regulations) while leaving the play to businesses. Every few decades or so, there would be a fowl (a crisis) when the referee (government) would run into the field and carry the injured out in a stretcher (bad banks/Financial a Institutions) before allowing the game to continue.
Shareholders were still reaping record profits through outsourcing and dividends were being distributed to all and sundry but for the American middle class, the system had become a sinkhole.
There were also instances where the system was abused by big corporations to offshore almost a sizeable portion of their operations albeit to save on costs and maximise profits for their shareholders. Disney and RBC were both landmark cases in their time that attest to this point.
So when Trump took over the Republican Party in 2016 (which he appears to have done quite well), he was quite clear about setting the record straight on this. In fact, what we’ve seen from him so far on this front confirms his locus-standi.
His entire road ahead for H1-B visa holders and the idea of making the the L1 visa tough to attain may not be in the best interests of the hoards of Techies across the world who aspire to come to America to live out their acquired American dream.
In fact, if it were up to the M.A.G.A crowd, these 2 categories of visas would probably be done away with altogether. For the Republican Party of 2020 is not the same party that ushered in the New World Order of the 2000’s. It is now the party of Donald Trump and has shifted its gravitational center to the extreme right.
If the Republicans do win the White House in November expect more traction on this front. Once the Manufacturing jobs have been brought back to the U.S. (or once they’ve convinced themselves they can’t do more on that front) there’s no reason why the attention will not shift to technology and services.
It will be a delicate balance of trying to bring in the most qualified immigrants to the U.S. to ensure that its Tech firms are still the best in the world versus appealing to the growing base of M.A.G.A who may wish to see a higher local and less diverse workplace.
The Trump Administration hasn’t hesitated till now to pull the F.A.A.N.G coterie before the antitrust panel and would be keen on showing its fan-base that it has the power to eventually influence the outcome.
Meanwhile in the US, countless families are in limbo now – waiting for visa extensions that are anything but certain. Newly weds who were set to touchdown in the US in 2020 to start afresh have have had their plans shelved, the list goes on ..
The 30 year IT global revolution has run its initial course. As the next phase of Cloud Computing and A.I emerge as the unsung victors during this impending recovery, automation has crept in through the backdoor and ..
the fine print is still wet.
