Why Joe Biden could use a History Lesson from JP Morgan
Joe Biden (US President) is indeed in an unenviable place!! All of his government’s efforts to resolve the Mid-East crisis have come a cropper. In fact, none of the efforts of US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, have placated any of the sides. Instead, it has riled them up even more.
If Antony Blinken has actually accomplished anything since the start of the war, it would probably be racking up his tally of air miles (assuming that he flew commercial).
Let’s summarize the very complicated issues into 10 points: -
The issues
- On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, killing 1139 people and taking 250 captives.
- Israel retaliated by launching a full-on offensive against Gaza with a two-fold goal. To dismantle their terrorist infrastructure and rescue the hostages.
- Hamas’s infrastructure, however, is dug in deep within the maze of tunnels in Gaza, making it difficult for Israel’s airpower to eliminate.
- Instead, Israel has resorted to pounding towns in Gaza, killing up to 33,000 Palestinians, claiming that Hamas is using innocent humans as shields.
- We don’t know how many of these deaths are Hamas-related, but we do know that women and children make up the majority.
- Anthony Blinken and the US administration, meanwhile, try to slow down Israel’s aggressive advance into Palestine, warning them that global opinion is turning against them.
- Nevertheless, Israel pushes relentlessly into Palestine, forcing the remaining Palestinian refugees to flee further south. At this point, two million Palestinians are currently holding out in the town of Rafah. Israel states that this is Hamas’s last stronghold and wants to launch a final offensive there.
- The global community, meanwhile, has spoken out strongly against Israel’s offensive in Gaza, with South Africa going so far as to haul them up in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing them of genoicide.
- In early April 2024, the straw finally broke the camels back. The United States, a staunch ally of Israel, decided to abstain from a vote in the UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
- Israel, upset at what it perceives to be a betrayal at the UN by the US, decides to cancel the state visit of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington, DC.
Where are the Peace-makers?
The answer: They’re busy going from capital to capital in the Middle East.
First it was Qatar, and now it is Cairo. At the time, the first deal to release hostages by Hamas on November 24, 2023 seemed to show promise, but the entire situation just continued to unravel into an eternity of endless rocket fire.
International diplomacy is a very complicated thing. There are so many sides to the same coin. Each coin has a history of melding on its own. Since Israel’s independence, the US has been Israel’s biggest supporter. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) in the United States also wields significant government clout.
Yet it’s nearly going to be a century since the formation of Israel, and yet the solution for Palestine is no closer now than it was back then.
To any outside observer, the most logical solution for this issue is the much discussed but controversial two-state solution, where the state of Israel exists alongside the state of Palestine, sharing borders, each governed by their own administration and accountable to their own people, respecting each other’s right to exist under international law.
These are all the laws by which nation-states exist today. For Palestine, though, this seems more like a pipe dream now.
So, why can’t there be peace?
Palestinians, who now refer to their 1948 expulsion from their original homeland in Israel as the Nakba, demand the right to return. Agreements that do not include this clause just fall apart. Israel, on the other hand, strongly detests this request, stating that Israel is the home of the Jews only.
Another contentious point is that the Palestinians want their future state’s capital to be the historic city of Jerusalem. Israel will not have that, since the city is home to three of the major religions, including Judaism. In 2018, when Donald Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, he acknowledged Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, angering Palestinians.
If Palestinians cannot get their right to return to their homeland or be given the capital of their choice, then there is little incentive for them to jump around town and celebrate Israel’s right to exist as a nation. Phrases such as “from the river to the sea” are indicative of this feeling.
To make matters worse, over the past ten years, the Israeli government has been progressively extending settlements into Gaza, encroaching upon territory that is internationally agreed to be a part of Palestine. This has left the Palestinians with the impression that what little they have is being taken away from them bit by bit until they are ultimately left with nothing.
The Chief Negotiator
Enter the most influential entity in this entire war → the USA
For decades, the United States has provided Israel with the means to build its infrastructure for survival. Israel, to its credit, has utilized it well. It is now one of the most successful countries in the Middle East, with a burgeoning middle class, an enviable technology sector, and a strong independent capability that it has built up on its own.
The US, however, still supplies Israel with weapons. The Iron Dome system that was flooded by thousands of rockets on October 7th by Hamas was in fact supplied by the US.
It goes without saying that the US has a lot of influence over Israel. For whatever reason, they seem reluctant to play their hand.
Negotiations for the end of this war have been ongoing for the last six months, with no end in sight.
So what does one do when negotiations break down and we have arrived at an impasse?
A lesson in history for Joe Biden could serve as an important guide.
The JP Morgan Tactic
In 1907, banking suffered a financial catastrophe — the first financial crisis of the 20th century, also known as the panic of 1907! A series of bank runs occurred across the United States over a large number of banks that threatened insolvency. J.P. Morgan, a renowned banker from the past and a household name today, stepped in to rectify this situation. Getting a bailout of banks at that time wasn’t easy, but he knew he needed to engineer a difficult deal even as customer confidence in the banking system was eroding.
So one fine day, J.P. Morgan got all the key stakeholders together in a room. I’m referring to the major trust companies and their chief bankers, all huddled up in a room. He then locked the door and told this eminent gathering of bankers that he would open a door only when they had an agreement in place on how to proceed
Sounds drastic?
Without a doubt, J.P. Morgan was given the authority and used it effectively to complete the task. I am sure there would have been raised voices, thumping on tables, and the occasional silence or “this would never work!!” being yelled out loud. When the group realized that they had no choice but to compromise and come to a conclusion, that’s exactly what they did. The talks reportedly continued until the early hours of the morning. Despite this, a resolution was ultimately reached.
It worked !! The system survived !!
The US is in the same place that J.P. Morgan was more than 100 years ago. In an effort to please Israel, it has angered the left wing of the Democratic Party, resulting in protests across some universities in the US. When it went to great lengths to issue stern warnings to Israel, it faced significant criticism from the right wing for abandoning Israel in its pursuit of counterterrorism.
A classic case of heads I win, tails you lose. The US has significant stakes in the Middle East and cannot afford to ignore this situation.
Joe Biden should take a cue from J.P. Morgan, get all the key players in the room himself (Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Hamas, Qatar, and other Middle East countries), and lock the door. If needed, he could even threaten to lose the key, if that is what it takes for them to agree to terms on halting the war.
And they say it takes a village!!
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